2016 coal supply and demand rising coal prices keep rising trend
And demand, the increase of the power plant coal consumption, as well as the New Year negotiation on the price of coal, will also be prompted large coal enterprises will not take the initiative to cut prices, bohai sea coal prices continue to remain strong. This year, coal prices keep rising.
11, 12, two months, according to the unified deployment of the relevant ministries and commissions of the state, the national thousands of advanced capacity mine will accelerate the release, and some of the coal mine is located in shanxi, Inner Mongolia and other places, for the coal transportation tasks, water will increase supply to the northern port call in.
Perhaps it was the scene of a combination of supply and demand can explain why the shandong three recent orders, production period tense problem, also please new and old customers understanding and understand the company schedule arrangement, if there is any delay the construction period is also please understanding!
Demand side, affected by the winter heating coal power plant load increase, the increase in coal consumption in east China, south China, ship number. Expects this winter, coastal coal city will appear in the past few in combination of coal supply and demand, so cut teeth like shandong three professional manufacturers, the cutting tooth production quantity also needs to keep pace with The Times, keep up with the trend of supply and demand of coal.
Winter, adverse to the coal transportation factors still exist, the cold season, wind, fog and other bad weather comes with the north coastal areas, the emergence of frozen coal, frozen car, to a certain extent, also affect port loading and unloading efficiency, add coal to the northern port throughput brings certain difficulty.
This year, the coal industry supply side structural reform vigorously promote domestic coal production decline, 1 - in August, the national coal output fell 10.2% year on year, especially in the decline of the thermal coal production, supply the northern port of coal water is also very in short supply. And the influence of real estate and infrastructure investment increase, the traditional power consumption falling in heavy industry, coastal areas of coal demand by much. And continuous hot weather this summer, make our country the summer power consumption innovation is high, the power load higher, six major coastal power plants, high consumption soared to more than 700000 tons. The increase of the decrease of coal supply and demand makes the domestic coal supply tight, port stocks fell, coal prices continue to rise. In September, the coal companies limit production, safety, coal resources nervous and downstream plants inventory factors, such as the northern port ship goods phenomenon still exist, such as port stocks rose slowly.
After more than a month of positive roping, power plant, the increase of coal in certain range. In October of coal is the traditional off-season, national key power plant coal has reached 60 million tons; Among them, the coastal power plant also has reached 12.5 million tons of coal, coal deposit available days up to 23 days. Under the demand of power plant, anchorage anchor ship has decreased. But stuck in daqin line maintenance, supply source, under the condition of port resources continue to tight; In the northern port, mixing, mixing, god friends, yitai, with Xin outstrips supply of high-quality low sulfur coal, due to the lack of goods and coal, coal prices, the phenomenon of the rise in the off-season. At present, the daqin line overhaul height, the overhaul is over half, coal port quantity affected, qinhuangdao port coal to maintain around 3.5 million tons, oil drilling save coal, only about 1.5 million tons. 20 days of daqin line maintenance "blank", will continue to depress inventory of the bohai rim various ports, is expected by the end of the month, qinhuangdao, tangshan port group of stocks also fell. In October, the northern port coal trading continued to rise, from early 600 yuan/ton rose to 18, 630 yuan/ton, is expected by the end of October, prices will rise to 660 yuan/ton.
11, December, after the railway maintenance, the railway department will full power, speed up the transportation. Then, to the port of coal resources will be increased, but the author analysis, in the northern port stocks will remain low, port coal won't appear sharply higher, reasons are as follows. , a former coal miner blind production and shipment has become history, although have advanced production release, the coal shipment will increase, but the main coal enterprises "three west" area will according to actual needs and save coal port downstream, scientific organization of coal transport, won't cause the northern port coal YaGang phenomenon; Second, to determine the coal in our country the year assignment capacity of 250 million tons, has completed 80% of the annual task by the end of September, at present, the production task is still arduous. To capacity in the country and the background of the reorganization of the coal mine safety, although have good capacity gradually released, but business is expected to launch coal coal production and shipment growth is limited, two months after the coastal city of coal supply pressure is not big. Three, after two months of this year, as the temperature drops, the north into the heating season, the power load increases; China's shandong province, east China, southwest and other places will also be a significant increase in coal consumption of power plant, coastal six major power plant, aggregate consumption is expected to rise to 60-700000 tons, will pull the coal demand to a certain extent, to the port of coal ship will significantly increase, port of shipment will increase in September and October, is expected to appear the northern port coal in and out of balance and stability of coal. Four, internationally, imported coal prices are rising, and gains a lot, cif is slightly lower than the domestic coal; The northern port coal water still favored by some users, the downstream user just the enthusiasm of domestic coal will not drop, purchase quantity to keep a certain level.
After two months, while "three west" coal resources supply quantity will be increased, the railway shipment will also be modest recovery, to the port of coal resources. But in the case of downstream demand increases, the coastal city of coal is expected to maintain a balance between supply and demand situation, the bohai sea port coal water price at the end of the year almost no, the possibility of a sharp drop in coal prices keep rising trend is a foregone conclusion for the whole year.